UBS Projects Gold Prices to Reach $3,700 by Mid-2026 Amid Macro Risks

Gold has emerged as the standout performer among major assets in 2025, posting year-to-date gains nearing 28%. UBS has revised its projections upward, forecasting $3,600 per ounce by March 2026 and $3,700 by June and September 2026.

The bank attributes this bullish outlook to persistent U.S. macro risks, eroding policy credibility, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and a gradual shift away from dollar reserves. A renewed rise in real yields remains the primary downside risk.

UBS ties its higher targets to fragile U.S. fiscal dynamics, potential growth slowdowns, and uncertain policy paths that continue to drive demand for defensive assets. The prospect of easier monetary policy in 2026 could further support Gold by lowering real yields.

Global gold ETF holdings increased by 23 tonnes in July, reaching 3,639 tonnes, while assets under management hit a monthly record NEAR $386 billion. UBS now estimates 2025 ETF demand at 600 tonnes, with total gold demand expected to rise 3% to 4,760 tonnes—the strongest level since 2011.